Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control of Cocoa Black Pod Disease Caused by Phytophora Margakarya
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Date
2024
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Publisher
Universal Wiser
Abstract
To address the critical threat black pod disease poses to global cocoa production and farmer income, this
study developed a novel mathematical model that utilizes a system of ordinary differential equations to capture the
interactions between various stages of cocoa pods (susceptible cherelles, young/mature pods, ripe pods) and their disease
state (exposed, infected). Additionally, the model incorporates the dynamics of the disease-causing pathogen population.
Employing Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the model optimizes control strategies that minimize disease impact. This
optimization identifies the efficient allocation of resources, timing of interventions, and deployment of control measures
like infected pod removal, fungicides, and sanitation practices. The finding of the study reveals that control measure u3
which is rouging (pod removal) and any one of the remaining control measures is best for the treatment of cocoa black pod
disease caused by Phytophora Megarkaya. These findings translate into valuable, data-driven recommendations for cocoa
farmers and disease management professionals. By strategically combining infected pod removal, targeted fungicide use,
and environmental management practices, farmers can significantly reduce disease severity, enhance cocoa production,
and promote a more sustainable cocoa industry