An Investigation of Cocoa Black Pod Disease Transmission through Mathematical Modelling
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2023-05
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Cocoa black pod disease is a severe danger to global cocoa output. Mathematical models
are commonly utilized to investigate disease transmission patterns and develop efficient control techniques.
In this study, we investigated the dynamics of cocoa black pod disease spread using a mathematical model.
The model's foundation is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the interactions between
susceptible (cherelles, young and mature pod, ripe pod), latent, infected, and recovered cocoa pods, as well
as the population dynamics of the disease-carrying pathogen. The developed model was validated using data
from the literature and ecological observation from cocoa plantations in Nigeria, West Africa. Our results
suggested the importance of early detection and rapid response in controlling the spread of cocoa black pod
disease. We also found that control measures, such as removal of infected pods and fungicide application
can be effective in reducing the propagation of the disease. Our study highlights the importance of
mathematical modeling in understanding the transmission dynamics of cocoa black pod disease and in
guiding the development of effective control strategies.