XXX-X-XXXX-XXXX-X/XX/$XX.00 ©20XX IEEE Nigeria’s Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption-GDP Relation and its Effect on National HDI:2005-2022 Oluremi Oyejide Energy and Sustainable Development Kadir Has University Istanbul, Turkey oluremi.odebode@stu.khas.edu.tr Goodnews Akindele ElectronicsEngineering Kadir Has University Istanbul, Turkey goodnews.akindele@stu.khas.edu.tr Oluwakemi Efemena Department of Geological Sciences Achievers University Owo, Nigeria efemena.oo@achievers.edu.ng Abstract— The correlation between energy usage and economic growth is widely acknowledged. The placement within the dynamics of Nigeria's economic growth and fossil fuel usage is evaluated in this paper. Retrieved and processed data from reliable databases, such as "Our World in Data" and THE WORLD BANK, covering the years 2005 to 2022, were used to analyze the following: percentage of total primary energy consumption (fossil fuel), percentage of consumption per capita, percentage of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), percentage of GDP per capita, and overall Human Development Index (HDI). The results showed fluctuations in GDP growth rates in tandem with stable energy consumption, a continuous reliance on fossil fuels in the face of a slow but steady rise in the HDI, and economic difficulties in certain years in spite of stable energy consumption. In contrast to predictions, the country's HDI, which has been rising steadily over time, was mostly unaffected by the non-linear link between GDP and fossil fuel usage. The study also showed variations in Adjusted Net Savings, indicating the unpredictability of the country's energy sector in the face of political and economic unpredictability. Notwithstanding these obstacles, the HDI showed a slow but noticeable improvement, suggesting that the income and savings Nigeria's petroleum resources provide to its population are not very beneficial. Considering the findings, policy-based recommendations were also offered. Keywords—Nigeria petroleum, fossil fuel, economic growth, primary energy, human development index I. INTRODUCTION The Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy consumption are all closely related and interdependent [1-2]. Generally, higher levels of economic development, as measured by GDP, are connected with increasing energy consumption, and the total consequence is often a positive influence on Human Development Index, a composite metric incorporating parameters like life expectancy, education, and income [3-4]. Understanding what people think about energy and environmental issues is a crucial aspect of energy studies, and it hits close to home with Nigeria's energy consumption, GDP relation, and its impact on the National HDI. Much like the extensive literature exploring several facet of energy-economy relation in developed countries, the intricate relationship between the use energy, economic growth, and the well-being of the people in Nigeria ought to be assessed. According to Onifade [5], Nigeria's oil output, which stood at 1.249 million bpd, surpassed Libya and Angola as at December 2023, making it Africa's largest oil producer. Nevertheless, despite being the largest economy and having the highest population in Africa, Nigeria's vast potential is not fully realized for most of its citizens. To illustrate, a Nigerian born in 2020 was expected to achieve only 36% of their full productivity potential if they had complete access to education and health. This places Nigeria as the 7th lowest in the world according to the human capital index, highlighting a significant gap in maximizing the productivity and well-being of its population. Furthermore, limited job creation and entrepreneurial opportunities hinder the integration of the 3.5 million Nigerians joining the workforce annually [6]. Consequently, a significant number of workers opt to migrate in pursuit of more favorable prospects, and projections indicate that the poverty rate is anticipated to reach 37% by 2023 [7], with an estimated 84 million Nigerians residing below the poverty line. This staggering figure positions Nigeria as home to the world's second-largest impoverished population, following only India. To asses these complexities, it is important to ask the research questions; How does the relationship between primary energy consumption and GDP growth in Nigeria align with established theories of energy-economic dynamics? And, how does the findings of the first question exert influence on the Human Development Index (HDI) in the Nigerian context? Some studies, particularly in developed country and emerging nations [8-10] suggest that there is a positive relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, indicating 20 24 In te rn at io na l C on fe re nc e on S ci en ce , E ng in ee rin g an d B us in es s f or D riv in g Su st ai na bl e D ev el op m en t G oa ls (S EB 4S D G ) | 9 79 -8 -3 50 3- 58 15 -5 /2 4/ $3 1. 00 © 20 24 IE EE | D O I: 10 .1 10 9/ SE B 4S D G 60 87 1. 20 24 .1 06 30 36 8 Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Kadir Has University. Downloaded on August 19,2024 at 10:40:28 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply. that increased energy consumption should lead to higher economic growth. This perspective emphasizes the importance of energy access and consumption in driving economic activities and entrepreneurship. However, studies from developing countries like Nigeria, for instance, suggests that this relation is influenced by several factors, such as corruption, and the relationship may not always be linear. For instance, [11- 12] investigated the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth on a disaggregated level in Asian developing countries. It was found that there exists a Neutrality Hypothesis between energy growth and consumption. Other studies [13-14] argued that factors such as capital and labor may have a more substantial impact on economic growth than energy consumption. Okoroafor et al. [15] extends this argument by empathizing that a steady electricity supply is the first affirmative engine in the infrastructure milieu that drives economic growth and transformation, which is a big concern in Nigeria. To a greater extent, the consensus is that energy consumption does play a role in economic growth in Nigeria [16-21] but the magnitude of its impact and the direction of causality are still subject to further investigation and analysis. These complexities might include inefficiencies in energy distribution [22], mismanagement of resources [23-24], or challenges in translating energy consumption into tangible economic development due to systemic issues [25]. Moreso, only a few extant literatures have attempted an in-depth analysis of the effect of energy consumption-GDP relation on HDI in the Nigerian context; most studies have often taken the country as a subset of energy matters in Sub-Saharan Africa or concentrate on electricity. It is however a known fact that fossil fuel, especially oil and gas, are the biggest natural and politically explored resources in Nigeria. Consequently, this study aims to uncover the variation and better understand the causal relationships in the context of Nigeria's specific challenges. Sequel to the established premises of the problem and questions, this exploration is akin to navigating through the opinions and concerns of the public, especially as the country’s economy crumbles. Hence, this study attempts to investigate and analyze the intricate relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and human development in Nigeria. In particular, the study aims to provide a substantial understanding of how energy dynamics contribute to the nation's economic performance and societal well-being of Nigerians. Through examining existing patterns, identifying potential disparities, and evaluating the impact of energy policies, the research’s ultimate goal is to inform evidence- based decision-making and propose targeted interventions. The subsequent texts are structed as follows: Section 2—Materials and Methods; elaborates on the chosen materials and methods, with a focused discussion on data selection and analysis. Section 3—Results; presentation of findings. Section 4—Findings and Discussion; answering of research questions and comparative analyses. Section 5—Conclusion and Suggestions; the conclusive insights and implications derived from the assessment, providing a synthesized overview of research outcomes and their significance in the broader context of Nigeria's socio-economic development, as well as making recommendations for policy making. II. MATERIALS AND METHODS This section outlines the quantitative methods employed for data collection, selection criteria, and the analytical tools used to investigate the intricate relationship between Nigeria's primary energy consumption, GDP, and the National HDI. Data sourced from reputable databases, including "Our World in Data" and THE WORLD BANK/data [27] over the period 2005 to 2022 were retrieved, processed and summarized to analyze % total primary energy consumption (fossil fuel), % consumption per capita, % total GDP, % GDP per capita, and Overall HDI. Due to the country's history of economic incompetence and corruption, Nigeria was known for owing huge debt to many developed nations. However, a deal with the Paris Club was struck in 2005, wiping off US$18 billion of the US$30 billion debt [28]. The justification for analyzing data between the period of 2005-2022 is to evaluate the economic progress of the nation with its most consumed primary energy (oil and gas), since the debt forgiveness. The retrieved and processed statistics are presented in Table 1, from which we generated and presented results through descriptive charts. TABLE 1: SUMMARY STATISTICS OF RETRIEVED DATA [27] Year Fossil fuel consumption per capita (% of total) Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) GDP per capita growth (annual %) GDP growth (Annual %) Population (~Millions) HDI 2005 7.5 21.66 3.61 6.44 140 0.47 2006 7.36 19.70 3.24 6.06 144 0.48 2007 7.41 17.58 3.74 6.59 148 0.48 2008 7.43 18.43 3.90 6.76 152 0.48 2009 7.11 15.85 5.13 8.04 157 0.48 2010 7.45 18.08 5.08 8.01 161 0.48 2011 7.66 19.08 2.44 5.31 165 0.49 2012 7.85 18.77 1.40 4.23 170 0.50 2013 7.67 18.59 3.83 6.67 175 0.51 2014 7.51 18.88 3.55 6.31 179 0.51 2015 7.5 21.66 0.08 2.65 184 0.52 2016 7.51 19.70 -4.05 -1.62 189 0.52 2017 7.51 17.58 -1.71 0.81 193 0.53 2018 7.51 19.30 -0.59 1.92 198 0.53 2019 7.47 19.30 -0.26 2.21 203 0.54 2020 7.51 19.00 -4.16 -1.79 208 0.54 2021 7.55 19.00 1.18 3.65 213 0.54 2022 7.55 19.00 0.82 3.25 219 0.54 Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Kadir Has University. Downloaded on August 19,2024 at 10:40:28 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply. III. RESULTS A. Fossil fuel consumption per capita and fossil fuel energy consumption As observed in Fig 1, the data shows a relatively stable trend in fossil fuel consumption per capita, ranging from 7.11% in 2009 to 7.85% in 2012. Over the years, the values have fluctuated within a narrow band, indicating a consistent level of fossil fuel consumption per person. Fossil fuel energy consumption as a percentage of the total energy mix exhibits a similar stability. The values range from 15.85% in 2009 to 21.66% in 2005 and 2015. While there are minor fluctuations, the overall pattern suggests a consistent reliance on fossil fuels for energy needs. Fig 1. Trend in fossil fuel consumption per capita and fossil fuel energy consumption In addition, the correlation between fossil fuel consumption per capita and fossil fuel energy consumption is relatively high, reflecting a direct relationship between these two factors. The consistent levels of fossil fuel consumption per capita suggest that, the per-person reliance on fossil fuels has not experienced significant changes. This might be attributed to the prevailing energy infrastructure and consumption patterns in Nigeria. Also, the stable percentage of fossil fuel energy consumption in the overall energy mix implies a persistent dependence on traditional energy sources. This could have economic implications, such as potential vulnerability to fluctuations in global fossil fuel prices and challenges in meeting sustainability goals. B. Fossil fuel consumption per capita and GDP per capita growth The trends in fossil fuel consumption per capita exhibit a relatively steady pattern over the years, shown in Fig 2. The values hover around the 7.5% mark, with minor fluctuations observed. This confirms that, on average, the per-person consumption of fossil fuels in Nigeria has remained relatively constant. Contrasting with the stable trend in fossil fuel consumption, GDP per capita growth rates exhibit more variability. The annual percentage growth in GDP per capita ranges from -4.16% in 2016 to a peak of 5.13% in 2010. The negative growth in 2016 implies an economic contraction, while the positive growth rates indicate periods of economic expansion. Examining the relationship between these two sets of data, it becomes evident that the stability in fossil fuel consumption does not necessarily align with consistent economic growth. While fossil fuel consumption remains relatively unchanged, economic growth experiences fluctuations, both positive and negative. This suggests that other factors, beyond fossil fuel consumption, contribute significantly to economic performance in Nigeria. The negative GDP per capita growth rates in certain years raise concerns about economic challenges or downturns during those periods. Fig. 2 Fossil fuel consumption per capita vs GDP per capita growth C. Annual percentage growth in GDP per capita alongside the overall GDP growth As shown in Fig 3, the annual GDP growth ranges from a low of -1.79% in 2018 to a high of 8.04% in 2010. In years of positive GDP per capita growth, there is generally a corresponding positive overall GDP growth, and vice versa. However, the magnitude of the changes in GDP per capita is more pronounced, reflecting the focus on individual economic well-being. The negative GDP per capita growth rates in certain years suggest challenges in maintaining or improving the average income levels of the population. Fig 3. GDP per capita growth vs annual GDP per capita growth 0 10 20 30 F o ss il f u el e n er g y co n su p ti o n Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) Fossil fuel consumption per capita (% of total) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2P er ce n ta g e o f to ta l Fossil fuel consumption per capita (% of total) GDP per capita growth (annual %) -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025P er ce n ta g e G D P GDP per capita growth (annual %) GDP growth (Annual %) Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Kadir Has University. Downloaded on August 19,2024 at 10:40:28 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply. D. Human Development Index (HDI), fossil fuel consumption per capita and GDP per capita growth rates Here, the HDI values exhibit a gradual upward trend over the years, ranging from 0.47 in 2005 to 0.54 in 2022 (see Fig. 4). This positive trajectory suggests an improvement in key indicators of human development, encompassing life expectancy, education, and per capita income. The steady progress in HDI reflects efforts towards enhancing the overall quality of life for the population. Simultaneously, the fossil fuel consumption per capita data reveals a relatively stable pattern with minor fluctuations. This stability, coupled with the increasing HDI, suggests that the country has managed to sustain economic development without a substantial surge in per capita fossil fuel consumption. Furthermore, analyzing the GDP per capita growth rates alongside HDI values provides insights into the economic drivers of human development. Positive GDP per capita growth rates, particularly during the years of 2010 and 2011, align with an uptick in HDI values, indicating a correlation between economic prosperity and improvements in human development indicators. However, the period from 2015 to 2018 presents a noteworthy divergence. While GDP per capita growth rates fluctuate, the HDI values continue to ascend. Analyzing the GDP per capita growth rates alongside HDI values provides insights into the economic drivers of human development. Positive GDP per capita growth rates, particularly during the years of 2010 and 2011, align with an uptick in HDI values, indicating a correlation between economic prosperity and improvements in human development indicators. However, the period from 2015 to 2018 presents a noteworthy divergence. While GDP per capita growth rates fluctuate, the HDI values continue to ascend. Fig 4. Relationship between annual GDP growth, HDI and Population growth E. Adjusted net savings and Annual change in primary energy consumption Adjusted net saving (ANS) measures the true rate of saving in an economy after considering investments in human capital, depletion of natural resources and damages caused by pollution. Adjusted net saving, known informally as genuine saving, is an indicator that aims to assess an economy’s sustainability based on the concepts of extended national accounts” [28]. Table 2 shows the claimed saving by the Nigerian government from the petroleum sector. TABLE 2. SUMMARY STATISTICS OF ADJUSTED NET SAVING AND CHANGE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION [27, 29] Years Adjusted savings $Billon ∆AEC (%) HDI 2005 11.47 9.380794 0.47 2006 21.17 -10.843945 0.48 2007 20.55 -8.328354 0.48 2008 24.12 20.275402 0.48 2009 20.61 -37.24927 0.48 2010 30.65 24.45656 0.48 2011 34.2 42.284763 0.49 2012 38.77 -0.2567351 0.50 2013 45.06 28.630234 0.51 2014 51.12 9.184015 0.51 2015 45.61 -5.4579854 0.52 2016 36.72 2.2541165 0.52 2017 33.26 -2.8013647 0.53 2018 38.57 7.00562 0.53 2019 44.06 3.3530593 0.54 2020 46.44 0.91195107 0.54 2021 48.95 6.7460656 0.54 2022 - - 0.54 The table provides a clear picture of the difficulties encountered by the nation despite being endowed with abundant petroleum resources. Notably, there are fluctuations in the Adjusted Net Savings, a crucial economic indicator that shows how well the nation can save for the future. This result reemphasizes that the nation's energy industry is volatile, which according to previous studies, is related to political and economic uncertainty. This is highlighted by the negative values in ∆AEC (Annual change in primary energy consumption). Despite these challenges, the Human Development Index (HDI) shows a gradual but insignificant improvement. It is safe to say that the citizens benefit very little from the revenue and savings on petroleum in Nigeria. As shown from Figure 5, except for 2005, the well-being of Nigerians in term of economic grown and HDI has not been commensurate to the claimed savings by the government of the country. Fig 5. Adjusted net savings and annual change in primary energy consumption 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 G D P g ro w th ; H D I P o p u la ti o n Population (~Millions) GDP growth (Annual %) Human Development Index 0 20 40 60 80 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 Economic growth rate (%) Adjusted savings (thousand $) HDI Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Kadir Has University. Downloaded on August 19,2024 at 10:40:28 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply. IV. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION The trends observed in primary energy consumption, GDP growth, and the Human Development Index (HDI) suggest a multifaceted relationship. First, the stability in fossil fuel consumption per capita underscores the country's ongoing reliance on traditional energy sources. Second, a staggering correlation is observed between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption, emphasizing the influence of various factors on Nigeria's economic performance. This reveals that fossil fuel consumption in Nigeria is intricate and not characterized by a simple, direct correlation. The politically driven shifts in energy policies, lack of technological advancements, geopolitical influences, and external economic conditions are all factors contributing to the complexity of this relationship. Third, a positive correlation was observed between GDP per capita growth and HDI values, highlighting the potential for economic prosperity to contribute to improved human development indicators. However, the observed divergence between GDP growth rates and HDI values in recent years warrants further investigation into the saliant factors influencing the economic indicators and human development in the Nigeria context. Notably, periods of higher GDP growth coincide with increased fossil fuel consumption per capita, emphasizing the role of energy-intensive sectors in contributing to economic expansion. The nation appears to be navigating a path of economic growth without excessive environmental costs, as suggested by the relatively stable Fossil Fuel Consumption per capita. This, while yet to be evident in the country’s energy policy, could be attributed to a potential focus on energy efficiency, diversification of energy sources, or policies promoting sustainable development. V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS This study aimed to address two primary research questions: first, how does the correlation between primary energy consumption and GDP growth in Nigeria align with established energy-economic dynamics? Second, how do the outcomes of the first inquiry impact the Human Development Index (HDI) in the Nigerian context? Interestingly, yet unsurprisingly, no straightforward correlation between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption in Nigeria was identified during the examined periods. This finding contradicts the established global norm of a direct link between energy consumption and economic growth, underscoring the multifaceted influence of various factors on Nigeria's economic performance. Regarding the second research question, the results indicate fluctuations in GDP growth rates alongside consistent energy use and a steady reliance on fossil fuels, coupled with a gradual increase in HDI. Despite economic challenges in certain years, the HDI continues to rise, emphasizing a non-linear relationship between fossil fuel consumption and GDP that has minimal impact on the country’s HDI. This suggests that achieving sustainable human development in Nigeria requires a comprehensive strategy considering both economic and non- economic elements. 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